Spread.NET 16 Formula Reference
Formula Functions / Functions D to G / FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT
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    FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT
    In This Topic

    This function returns a confidence interval for the forecast value at the specified target date. Using confidence interval can help grasp the accuracy of the predicted model. A smaller interval would imply more confidence in the prediction for this specific point.

    Syntax

    =FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT(target_date,values,timeline,[confidence_level],[seasonality],[data_completion],[aggregation])

    Arguments

    The function has the following arguments:

    Argument

    Description

    target_date

    [Required] is a date for which you want to predict a new value. Must be after the last date in the timeline.
    values [Required] is a range of the historical values for which you want to predict a new point.
    timeline

    [Required] is a range of date/time values that correspond to the historical values. The timeline range must be of the same size as the values range. Date/time values must have a constant step between them.

    confidence_level

    [Optional] is a numeric value between 0 and 1 (exclusive) that specifies the confidence level for the calculated confidence interval. If it is omitted, the default value of 0.95 is used.

    seasonality

    [Optional] is a numeric value that specifies which method should be used to detect the seasonality. The possible values are listed in the table below.

    • 1 or omitted:  Seasonality is detected automatically. Positive, whole numbers are used for the length of the seasonal pattern.
    • 0:  No seasonality, the prediction will be linear.
    • an integer greater than or equal to 2: The specified number is used for the length of the seasonal pattern.
    data_completion

    [Optional] is a numeric value that specifies how to process the missing data points in the timeline data range. The possible values are listed below.

    • 1 or omitted:  Missing points are calculated as the average of the neighboring points.
    • 0:  Missing points are treated as zero values.
    aggregation

    [Optional] is a numeric value that specifies which function should be used to aggregate identical time values in the timeline data range. The possible values are listed below.

    Numeric Value Function
    1 or omitted AVERAGE

    2

    COUNT

    3

    COUNTA

    4

    MAX

    5

    MEDIAN

    6

    MIN
    7: SUM

    Remarks

    A confidence interval of 95% means that 95% of future points are expected to fall within this radius from the result FORECAST.ETS forecasted (with normal distribution).

    Data Types

    Returns a specified statistical value relating to a time series.

    Examples

    Version Available

    This function is available in product version 16.0 or later.